Forecasting the motion of North Atlantic tropical cyclones by the objective MOHATT scheme
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Authors
Renard, R.J.
Colgan, S.G.
Daley, M.J.
Rinard, S.K.
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
1973-03
Date
Publisher
Language
Abstract
An objective scheme for forecasting the
motion of tropical cyclones (MOHATT) , under development
since 1967 by the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical
Weather Central and the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School,
Monterey, Calif., is described and applied to the 1967-71
North Atlantic tropical cyclones for forecast intervals up
to 72 hr. The MOHATT scheme involves steering of the
center of the cyclone by geostrophic winds derived from
heavily smoothed isobaric height fields (both analyzed and
prognostic) and a statistical correction determined by the
behavior of the first 12 hr of the steering forecast. The
developmental sample (1967-70) used to establish the
potential accuracy of MOHATT indicates 700 mb as the
optimum steering level, but the fully operational test in
1971 suggests that the 850-mb level may be an improvement
for forecast intervals beyond 36 hr.
Type
Article
Description
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Department
Meteorology
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Citation
Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 101, No. 3, pp. 206-214.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.