Chinese crisis decision making : using a cybernetic approach to interpret and predict Beijing's behavior under stress

Abstract

An accurate understanding of the Chinese decision-making process is critical to anticipating and deescalating Sino-American crises through effective crisis management. Although rational models of decision making have been heavily used to explain state decisions, some outcomes do not fit rational assumptions, leaving questions of state intentions seemingly ambiguous and unanswered. This study uses an organizationcentered, cybernetic approach and assumes: 1) that alternatives considered by a government reside in the existing capabilities of the state's institutions, and 2) decisionmaking outcomes are characterized as governmental actions through organizational routines. After identifying three functional decision-making variables (how a decisionmaking process manages complexity, deals with uncertainty, and adapts to change), this research tests the general structure and current trends in PRC politics for evidence that Beijing uses cybernetic methods when deciding how to resolve complex problems. Additionally, this study selects five recent near-crisis events (1999 Belgrade embassy bombing, 2001 EP-3 midair collision, 2002-03 SARS outbreak, 2007 PRC anti-satellite test, and 2008 Sichuan earthquake response) for a cross-case analysis of these same three variables in times of crisis. This research offers unique insight in both the applicability of the cybernetic model in PRC analysis as well as expectations of Beijing's future decision making under stress.