A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELING RESISTANCE ORGANIZATIONS AND GUERRILLA FORCE CARRYING CAPACITY
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Authors
Wallace, Sean M.
Subjects
resistance
unconventional warfare
ecological modeling
predator prey relationship
carrying capacity
modeling
resistance potential
will to resist
Lotka-Volterra model
susceptible-infected-recovered model
SIR
system dynamics
irregular warfare
Resistance Operating Concept
ROC
Cyprus Emergency
EOKA
counterinsurgency
COIN
guerrilla warfare
special operations forces
SOF
unconventional warfare
ecological modeling
predator prey relationship
carrying capacity
modeling
resistance potential
will to resist
Lotka-Volterra model
susceptible-infected-recovered model
SIR
system dynamics
irregular warfare
Resistance Operating Concept
ROC
Cyprus Emergency
EOKA
counterinsurgency
COIN
guerrilla warfare
special operations forces
SOF
Advisors
McCormick, Gordon H.
Date of Issue
2024-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Military defeat or occupation are not necessarily the end to a conflict. Resistance movements can prevail long after military defeat and may offer states facing a superior foe a strategic path to regain national sovereignty. This research aims to quantify a population's capacity for armed resistance (resistance potential) to inform planning for employment and support of special operations forces (SOF). Using system dynamics modeling, this research simulates resistance based on the Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) framework and the Cyprus Emergency case study. It leverages ecological concepts of epidemiology’s susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and Lotka-Volterra predator-prey relationships to model interactions between guerrilla forces and the supporting resistance population. The model successfully identifies a resistance population's carrying capacity, influenced by public sentiment and recruitment rate. It further suggests a resistance can sustain guerrilla forces of up to 5% of its total size by optimizing a resistance’s organizational structure. These findings offer insights for SOF employment. A resistance’s carrying capacity can guide the number and type of SOF advisors allocated to a region. The model also suggests that optimizing resistance structure and timing is more critical than building large-scale public sentiment. Misallocation of SOF resources exceeding the system's carrying capacity can hinder long-term resistance growth.
Type
Thesis
Description
Includes Supplementary Material
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
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NPS Report Number
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Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.