Peaceful protest, political regimes, and the social media challenge
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Authors
Childs, Geoffrey D.
Fleming, Randolph J.,II
Subjects
information and communications technology (ICT)
authoritarian
autocratic
anocratic
civil conflict
collective action
peaceful protest
social media index (SMI)
authoritarian
autocratic
anocratic
civil conflict
collective action
peaceful protest
social media index (SMI)
Advisors
Warren, T. Camber
Date of Issue
2016-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Information and communication technologies (ICT) have transformed with the advent of the Internet and the diffusion of cellular-based communications. Previous research has examined the effects of horizontal ICT on collective violence, but the effects on non-violent expressions are not well understood. Using social conflict data from Africa and Latin America between 1990 and 2011, this study employs negative binomial regression models to explore the distinct effects of the spread of social media on peaceful protests within democratic, anocratic, and autocratic regimes. Multiple regression models find strong statistical evidence in support of a positive relationship between social media and peaceful protest in anocratic regimes. Autocratic and anocratic states will thus increasingly find themselves in a social media challenge--repress horizontal ICT or embrace it and its effects--as their populations seek democratization.
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.