INNOVATIONS IN THE STATE-SPONSORED ATTACK LANDSCAPE: PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA LEARNING FROM RUSSIAN CYBER EFFORTS IN UKRAINE TO SHAPE FUTURE INTERACTIONS WITH TAIWAN
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Authors
Long, Roger W., Jr.
Subjects
cyber
Russia
Ukraine
China
PRC
Taiwan
irregular warfare
cyberwarfare
intelligence
strategy
People's Republic of China
Russia
Ukraine
China
PRC
Taiwan
irregular warfare
cyberwarfare
intelligence
strategy
People's Republic of China
Advisors
Maness, Ryan
Date of Issue
2024-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
State-sponsored cyber acts against a rival are a prominent feature of the modern spectrum of conflict. In the Russo-Ukraine War, both belligerents have used new advances in cyberwarfare to conduct espionage, information operations, and kinetic coordinated attacks. These same tactics could be implemented now and in the near future in a Taiwan-PRC conflict. Using a mixed methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative evidence of Russian cyber incidents directed against Ukraine, this research will aim to offer insight into what Taiwan may expect from the PRC in the cyber domain. The first section is a quantitative analysis of cyber incidents and their relation to violence. The second is a comparative analysis that identifies several specific developments in Russia’s use of cyber capabilities in the Ukraine conflict that could be applicable for the PRC, and then assesses both similarities and differences in the circumstances surrounding Taiwan. The follow-on findings focus on what specific lessons Beijing is likely to learn from the Russian experience.
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Thesis
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Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.