AUTOMATED THUNDERSTORM FORECASTING VALIDATION
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Authors
Carter, Joshua D.
Subjects
thunderstorm forecasting
NAVGEM
automation
NAVGEM
automation
Advisors
Feldmeier, Joel W.
Tyndall, Daniel, Naval Research Laboratory
Date of Issue
2020-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Increased use of long-duration unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), as well as other factors, has led to a growing demand on the naval meteorology and oceanography (METOC) community for mission-tailored meteorological support. To creatively meet this need, the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Marine Meteorology Division has developed methodologies to process output from the Navy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM). Automated products replicate human weather forecasters’ written and unwritten rules to produce guidance for icing, turbulence, and thunderstorms. This is a force multiplier, as it takes the skilled, but few in number, human forecasters from being “in the loop” to being “over the loop.” Much like the National Weather Service Aviation Weather Center’s World Area Forecast System, utilizing Global Forecast System (GFS) output, NRL’s existing automated thunderstorm algorithm uses convective precipitation and cloud thickness variable output to compute areas of expected thunderstorms. This thesis examines the current NRL method, and a few alternatives, in the Geostationary Satellite East coverage area and in two operationally relevant locations. Partial validation of forecasts is conducted using statistical analyses and comparison with satellite lightning observations. Results indicate that NRL’s current methodology performs the best overall; new methodologies slightly lag behind.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology (MR)
Organization
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NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. distribution is unlimited
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.