CONFLICT IN THE 21ST CENTURY: UNDERSTANDING COUNTERINSURGENCY IN THE WAKE OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION

Abstract

Shifts in the policy of the United States place renewed emphasis on countering near-peer adversaries. Evidence indicates that nations commonly create, sponsor, and support insurgencies as a tool of their foreign policy. If history predicts future events, then insurgency and counterinsurgency will continue through the 21st century. By evaluating the phases of the conflict in Afghanistan, this study sought to determine a way to organize and sequence the key principles of counterinsurgency to ensure the long-term attainment of national objectives. The study tested several hypotheses against historical cases wherein a host-nation received varying degrees of external support. If these hypotheses are valid, all the counterinsurgency victories would have followed a similar sequence through their phases. However, evaluation showed that while a few key principles must occur early in a COIN campaign, most counterinsurgencies achieve success differently. Though no one sequence emerged, the study determined which key principles the United States should accomplish first, and identifies several combinations of other counterinsurgency principles to systematically test to increase the chances of attaining U.S. national objectives in counterinsurgency efforts.