A social structure model for evaluating the effect of response measures on the spread of smallpox
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Authors
Kress, Moshe
Subjects
Smallpox
Prevention
Vaccination
Prevention
Vaccination
Advisors
Date of Issue
2004
Date
2004
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Homogeneous mixing, where all instances of contacts between any two members of the population are equally likely, is a common assumption in modeling biodefense policies against smallpox. Such a mixing pattern is rather unlikely to represent population interaction in a modern urban setting, which typically is separated into households on one hand, and into daily meeting sites such as school and offices, on the other hand. In this paper we develop a dynamic two-level social interaction model where individuals move back and forth between home and daily meeting sites, possibly passing through a general meeting site such as a mass transit system or other crowded areas. Based on this difference-equations model, we evaluate the effect of situational awareness and response measures, such as vaccination, quarantining and movement restrictions, on the spread of smallpox in the population.
Type
Technical Report
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
NPS-OR-05-002
Sponsors
Funder
Format
iii, 30 p.: ill.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.