Yemen: comparative insurgency and counterinsurgency
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Authors
Johnson, Ryan
Subjects
Yemen; Saleh; Counterinsurgency; Counterterrorism; al Qaeda; AQAP; al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula; Houthi; Huthi; Ansar Shariah; Ansar Allah; Believing Youth; Terrorism; Insurgency; Arab Spring; Houthis; Huthis; Republican Guard; Sadah; Sadaa; Sanaa; Abyan; Islamic Jihad; Aden Abyan Islamic Army; Middle East; Sana
Advisors
Baylouny, Anne Marie
Date of Issue
2015-03
Date
March 2015
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Why have Yemen’s counterinsurgency and counterterrorism polices been less effective against the Huthi movement compared to al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)? This paper finds that the military’s poor counterinsurgency and counterterrorism policies, the international effort to combat AQAP, the Huthi’s ability to recruit and mobilize large numbers of followers, and the Huthi leadership’s pragmatic alliances gave the Huthis the advantage over AQAP and the Republic of Yemen. Yemen faces multiple security problems. Foremost, the country faces threats from various groups including the Huthi Movement, AQAP, Hirak, and tribal elements with the Huthis recently capturing Sanaa. The country’s oil supply will soon to run out, which is the main source of government revenue. The country is still in the process of transition required by the Gulf Cooperation Council-negotiated agreement after the Arab Spring. These problems are exacerbated by corruption, social, and economic problems. Finally, state failure remains a real possibility, with the various groups battling for control. In this case, Yemen could become the next Somalia. The worse scenario for the U.S. would for Yemen to become a safe haven for a group intent on attacking U.S. citizens and interests.
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Thesis
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Department
National Security Affairs
National Security Affairs
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.