Learning to see the opportunities in crisis and catastrophe: a decision maker’s guide to the issue-attention cycle
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Authors
Kimrey, Christopher M.
Subjects
issue-attention
crisis emergence
punctuated equilibrium
policy window
congressional attention
crisis emergence
punctuated equilibrium
policy window
congressional attention
Advisors
Bellavita, Christopher
Date of Issue
2015-09
Date
Sep-15
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Emerging problems often surprise lawmakers and agency officials and result in rapid, reactive governance. The political attention an issue receives may or may not be sufficient to resolve the emergent problem and in many cases may be an over-reactive auto-response dictated by public opinion and issue salience. This thesis examines the emergence of congressional post-crisis attention and uses statistical analysis to demonstrate the primary characteristics that influence the emergence of attention pertaining to a crisis. Furthermore, this thesis has established a repeatable model whereby an emerging crisis can be evaluated by its characteristics to predict the likely reaction of government. This thesis uses quantitative methods to simplify the complexity posed by future crises in an effort to avoid sporadic governance. Recognition of the potential for reactiveness in decision making may be the key step to creating a culture of controlled, proactive agenda setting. The merits of this research transcend the organizational or political future of a single entity or specific stakeholder. Ideally, this work will provide an alternate method to observe and study the dynamics of emerging crises and episodic attention, providing an opportunity to analyze, comprehend, and then react differently.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs
National Security Affairs
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.