The next transition in Cuba : an analysis based on institutional comparisons with Democratic Transitions in Central Europe
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Authors
Thweatt, Robert M.
Subjects
Advisors
Trinkunas, Harold A.
Date of Issue
2001-09
Date
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Decision makers throughout the international community, including the United States, need reliable information on the characteristics of Cubaαs next transition to make effective policy towards the island. This work adds to existing research by exploring what lessons can be learned about Cubaαs next transition by comparing Cubaαs current institutional environment to the institutional environments found in four Soviet bloc countries prior to their transitions to democracy in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Based on this institutional analysis, the study argues that a lack of internal oppositional organizations makes Cuba institutionally unready for a transition to democracy. Instead, an imposition of an authoritarian successor regime will characterize Cubaαs next transition. Moreover, Cubaαs eventual transition to democracy likely will occur through imposition, but as the distance in time from the departure of Fidel Castro increases, a transition towards democracy through reform or, less likely, through revolution becomes more probable. Finally, this work recommends that international decision makers tailor their policies towards Cuba in such a manner as to avoid a violent revolution on the island, to promote an independent Cuban civil society, and to seek an international consensus on Cuba's future.
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Thesis
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Department
National Security Affairs
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NPS Report Number
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Format
xviii, 121 p. ;
Citation
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.