A human error analysis and model of naval aviation maintenance related mishaps

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Authors
Schmorrow, Dylan D.
Subjects
Aviation Accidents
Aviation Mishaps
Accident Classification
Accident Prediction
Maintenance Mishaps
Human Factors
Human Error
Poisson Process
Cost Estimation
Advisors
Conner, George W.
Schmidt, John K.
Date of Issue
1998-09
Date
Sept 1998
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Naval Aviation is in the midst of a major transformation as it attempts to come to terms with the demands of maintaining operational readiness in the face of diminishing budgets and reduced manning. Diminishing operating and procurement budgets mean that Naval Aviation is for the most part "making do" with existing aircraft. Over the past decade, one in four Naval Aviation mishaps were partially attributable to maintenance error. The present operating environment underscores the need to address maintenance error and its causes. The current study accomplishes three things. First, it evaluates 470 Naval Aviation mishaps with distinct maintenance error correlates. Second, it categorizes those errors using a taxonomy based upon current organizational and psychological theories of human error. Third, it mathematically models the consequences of these errors and uses the models to (a) predict the .frequency with which maintenance-based mishaps will occur in the future and (b) approximate the potential cost savings from the reduction of each error type.
Type
Thesis
Description
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/44430
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Department
Operations Research
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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