TRAINING FOR THE UNKNOWN: PREPARING SOF LEADERS' COGNITIVE FLEXIBILITY FOR DECISION-MAKING UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY.

Abstract

The current security environment in Sweden and its surrounding region is marked by instability, hybrid threats, and the return of Large-Scale Combat Operations (LSCO). The war in Ukraine underscores that uncertainty is a permanent feature of modern warfare, challenging traditional defense models and demanding that Swedish Special Operations Forces (SWESOF) leaders make sound decisions amid ambiguity and complexity. This thesis examines the factors shaping decision-making under uncertain conditions and explores how cognitive flexibility and adaptability can be systematically developed through education, training, and organizational culture. Drawing on organizational theory, historical case studies such as Operation GUNNERSIDE (1943) and KINGPIN (1970), and the concept of adaptability, the study argues that effective decision-making requires leaders to interpret incomplete information, manage stress, and adjust rapidly to change. As a practical contribution, the thesis introduces a decision-making game based on historical Special Operations Forces (SOF) operations to simulate uncertainty and time pressure as a tool for cultivating cognitive flexibility. The findings emphasize that integrating adaptability into leadership development, doctrine, and training enhances SOF’s ability to act decisively and maintain operational effectiveness in unpredictable and dynamic environments.