Extratropical transition of Western North Pacific tropical cyclones

Abstract

Extratropical transition (ET) of a tropical cyclone (TC) often results in a mid-latitude storm that threatens maritime and coastal interests. Cases of ET between 1 July through 31 October during 1994-1996 are reviewed using Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) analyses and hourly geostationary satellite imagery. Current conceptual models are found to be inadequate to explain the physical processes in ET. ET is redefined to have two stages: transformation, where the TC is transformed from a warm-core vortex into a baroclinic, cold-core extratropical cyclone, and re- intensification, where the transformed TC either deepens or dissipates, depending on the existence of upper4ropospheric support for extratropical cyclogenesis. ET is further defined in terms of two characteristic mid-latitude synoptic patterns: meridional, in which the cyclones have meridional tracks and tend to re-intensify less vigorously than zonal, which have zonal tracks and may deepen explosively. Review of NOGAPS 5OO-mb anomaly correlation scores in 1996 demonstrated that ET may be associated with significant NOGAPS errors. Sea-level pressure forecasts during ET events involving a merger tend to be too deep. In ET cases of rapidly deepening storms, NOGAPS tends to overforecast their intensity during transformation, and then underforecast during re- intensification. Rules of thumb are provided to assist forecasters in improving predictions of the track and intensity of storms undergoing ET