Navy Expeditionary Readiness Model
Authors
MacKinnon, Douglas J.
Subjects
expeditionary
readiness
budget forecasting
program objective memorandum
readiness
budget forecasting
program objective memorandum
Advisors
Date of Issue
2023-01-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Naval expeditionary forces lack the ability to adequately estimate the level of spending required to achieve a minimum level of readiness. Under the status quo, the Navy Expeditionary Combat Enterprise (NECE) Capability Costing Model (NCCM) forecasts routine requirements using Excel Solver and data from the Optimized Fleet Response Plan (OFRP) and Certified Obligation Reports. The sponsor believes a more accurate model to forecast costs may exist. The purpose of this research is to explore forecasting methods that may be able to improve the determination of requirements in the Program Objective Memorandum (POM) process. This research uses various forecasting methods at various levels of budget aggregation to improve budget forecasting accuracy. The various models forecast costs at different levels of accuracy across different levels of aggregation. Some models produce very accurate forecasts two years into the future: their forecasted budgetary requirements are less than three percent different than the executed amounts. Other models are much worse. The author recommends using the forecasting methods described in the technical report to supplement the forecasting methods currently in use.
Type
Report
Description
NPS NRP Executive Summary
Series/Report No
Department
Information Sciences (IS)
Organization
Naval Research Program (NRP)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
N8 - Integration of Capabilities & Resources
Funder
This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)
Format
4 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.