STRATEGIC FUSION OR FISSION? THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF NUCLEAR COOPERATION IN SHAPING SINO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS
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Authors
Strahle, Ryan T.
Subjects
China
Russia
United States
U.S.
nuclear cooperation
defense cooperation
Russia
United States
U.S.
nuclear cooperation
defense cooperation
Advisors
Matovski, Aleksandar
Date of Issue
2025-03
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
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Abstract
Sino-Russian nuclear cooperation has grown rapidly in the past decade, eliciting concern from United States (U.S.) policymakers. To determine the impact of this inherently significant activity on the larger relationship, this thesis examines the current nuclear cooperation between Beijing and Moscow within their broader strategic partnership by comparing it to the Anglo-American nuclear alliance and the historical Sino-Soviet alignment.The analysis of the Sino-Russian “no limits” strategic partnership shows it is, in practice, deliberately limited. Driven to avoid a repeat of the Sino-Soviet split, the Sino-Russian partnership is a pragmatic alignment primarily driven by shared security concerns and characterized by the lack of binding institutions, trust, and reciprocity seen in enduring alliances.The analysis suggests that this nuclear cooperation reflects the deliberate pragmatism of the larger relationship. While significant, it is a transactional arrangement designed to support Beijing’s and—to a much lesser degree—Moscow’s revisionist goals. The loosely institutionalized agreements, asymmetric benefits favoring China, and divergent long-term goals that limit the larger relationship also exist in the nuclear cooperation, effectively preventing strong positive or negative outcomes.For U.S. policymakers, this assessment indicates that the Sino-Russian nuclear cooperation reflects the limits of the larger alignment and should not overly influence U.S. strategic planning.
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Thesis
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Distribution Statement
Distribution Statement A. Approved for public release: Distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.