Cruise missile proliferation : an application of Bayesian analysis to intelligence forecasting
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Authors
Gannon, Michael William
Subjects
Cruise Missiles
Proliferation
Forecasting Methods
Bayesian Analysis
Proliferation
Forecasting Methods
Bayesian Analysis
Advisors
Laurance, Edward J.
Date of Issue
1992-09
Date
Sep-92
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis examines the manner in which the technique of Bayesian analysis may be applied to the forecasting of cruise missile proliferation. Bayesian analysis is a quantitative procedure in which the alternative hypothetical outcomes are postulated and their prior probabilities estimate. As additional relevant events occur, the probabilities of their association with each hypothesis are used to calculate a revised probability for each alternative outcome. To support a sample analysis, this thesis traces the historical development of cruise missiles, discusses the various motivations for their acquisition or indigenous production by a developing nation, and identifies technologies crucial to the building of an advanced cruise missile system. After describing the Bayesian method and demonstrating its use in a theoretical example, the thesis concludes with some policy implications of cruise missile proliferation and its forecasting by the intelligence community.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
x, 86 p.;28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.