THE WAY TO THE PROMISED LAND OR THE DOOR TO ARMAGEDDON: HOW SEVERE ARE THE THREATS AGAINST THE PHYSICAL SECURITY OF ISRAELI OFFSHORE GAS PLATFORMS?

Abstract

In the past twenty years, Israel has discovered large deposits of natural gas in the exclusive economic zone off its coast. By exploiting these deposits, Israel is rapidly becoming not only self-sufficient in natural gas but also a potential exporter of natural gas, gaining considerable income. However, Israel faces serious security challenges, both from terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and from hostile nations like Iran. As the offshore gas platforms become increasingly critical for Israel’s economy they also become more appealing targets for Israel’s enemies. This thesis addresses the question: How severe are the threats posed by state and non-state actors against the physical security of Israeli offshore natural gas platforms? It finds that while Hezbollah and Iran are capable of attacking the Israeli offshore platforms, they are deterred by Israel’s credible threats and the substantial defense systems that protect the platforms and minimize the chances of a successful attack. Hamas and PIJ do not yet possess the required capabilities to significantly threaten Israeli offshore platforms. Therefore, unless the current geopolitical situation in the area changes drastically, the threats to the physical security of Israeli offshore natural gas platforms are minor.