An Evaluation of Diagnostic Atmospheric Dispersion Models for 'Cold Spill' Applications at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California

Abstract

Six diagnostic atmospheric dispersion modeling groups: NUATMOS/ CITPUFF, CALMET/CALPUFF PGEMS, WOCSS/MACHWIND/Adaptive plume, and LINCOM/ RIMPUFF/HEAVYPUFF are evaluated for use in specifying toxic hazard corridors for rocket propellant and oxidizer cold spills at Vandenberg AFB. Other models are also considered briefly. Physical assumptions, speed, cost, availability, ease of use, compatibility with existing risk assessment systems, validation, data requirements, and Vandenberg suitability are discussed. Underlying physical basis and modeling technique are emphasized. Dispersion models consist of separable windflow and dispersion sub-models. A MACHWIND/LINCOM windflow tandem with ADPIC, RIMPUFF, or CALPUFF diffusion may provide the most robust diagnostic modeling suite. A cost/benefit analysis of computer hardware and modeling accuracy is given.... Atmospheric dispersion models, Diagnostic mesoscale, Wind flow models, Puff diffusion models, Emergency response, Toxic hazard corridors.