Retention Analysis Modeling for the Acquisition Workforce
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Authors
Ahn, Tom
Menichini, Amilcar
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2020-04-20
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
We analyze the long-run career trajectory of a subset of the civilian AWF to find that 1) the AWF does well in retaining diversity, 2) one of the strongest predictors of career longevity is prior military service, and 3) workers with more education have longer careers. AWF leadership should invest in the workforce by encouraging/subsidizing education and actively recruiting and hiring from active duty to seamlessly transition them into the civilian workforce. However, as the AWF remains predominantly white due to racial imbalance at the point of hiring, the leadership should focus on attracting diverse workforce at the junior level. We then create a proof-of-concept dynamic retention model that is able to 1) simulate the long-run stay-or-leave decision of a representative worker and aggregate the individual up to the entire workforce, 2) introduce compensation changes to simulate the response of the workforce, and 3) preview the ability of the model to forecast and actively shape the AWF through dynamic simulations.
Type
Report
Presentation
Presentation
Description
Panel #5: Characterizing the Acquisition Workforce
Series/Report No
Department
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
SYM-AM-20-084
Sponsors
Naval Postgraduate School
Funding
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.