Japan/East Sea model predictability
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Authors
Kim, Chang S.
Chu, Peter C.
Fang, Chin-Lung
Subjects
Advisors
Date of Issue
2005
Date
2005
Publisher
Language
Abstract
Three major input uncertainties (initial velocity field, open boundary conditions, and atmospheric forcing) limit the
ocean modeling capability. The Princeton Ocean Model (POM) implemented to the Japan/East Sea (JES) is used to
investigate the ocean predictability due to the input uncertainties. Two-step (pre-simulation and simulation) initialization is
used to obtain ‘‘standard initial velocity’’. Twelve experiments are conducted with one control run and 11 sensitivity runs.
The control run is to integrate POM–JES from the ‘‘standard initial velocity’’ with the lateral transport (unperturbed) and
the daily surface wind stress, net heat flux, and fresh-water flux interpolated from the COADS monthly mean data
(unperturbed). The sensitivity runs are to integrate POM–JES with replaced initial velocity fields (with or without
diagnostic initialization), and noisy winds and lateral boundary transports.
Model uncertainty due to uncertain input data (initial velocity, winds, and lateral boundary transport) is significant.
Level independent relative root mean square error for the whole JES is 0.2–0.5 for uncertain initial velocity field, 0.19 for
uncertain surface winds with 0.5 m/s noise, and 0.20 for uncertain lateral transport with 5% noise. The maximum level
dependent relative root mean square error reaches 0.6 at the surface for uncertain winds (0.5 m/s noise), and 0.18 at the
bottom for uncertain lateral transport (5% noise). Model uncertainty reduces with time for uncertain initial velocity field,
oscillates with an evident error growing trend for uncertain winds, and oscillates with no evident error growing trend for
uncertain lateral transport. Furthermore, there is no difference using and not using the diagnostic (velocity) initialization
and no difference in choosing periods (30–90 days) for diagnostic initialization.
Type
Article
Description
Continental Shelf Research
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2005.03.006
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csr.2005.03.006
Series/Report No
Department
Oceanography
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NPS Report Number
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Citation
Chu, P.C., C.-L. Fang, and C.S. Kim, 2005: Japan/East Sea model predictability (paper download). Continental Shelf Research, 25, 2107-2121.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.