Analysis of SSN 688 class submarine maintenance delays
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Authors
Lary, R. Leon, IV
Subjects
Submarine
maintenance availability
688
delay
cost
overrun
I-Level
D-Level
TFP Rev B
CPE
duration equation
estimate
DSRA
CMAV
man-days/job
man-day creep
workforce experience levels
shipyard
PHNSY
IMF
facility
maintenance availability
688
delay
cost
overrun
I-Level
D-Level
TFP Rev B
CPE
duration equation
estimate
DSRA
CMAV
man-days/job
man-day creep
workforce experience levels
shipyard
PHNSY
IMF
facility
Advisors
Dew, Nick
Kang, Keebom
Date of Issue
2017-06
Date
Jun-17
Publisher
Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The combination of negative real budget growth and unchanged operational use has stressed the resources of the United States Navy, resulting in an annual average over-budget execution of $0.77 billion per year in Navy-wide ship depot maintenance since FY2010. The Navy's active ship maintenance budget only supports 70 percent of the ship maintenance projected in FY2017; a significant portion of over-budget execution and delays has occurred with submarine availabilities. Delays to a submarine's return to the fleet results in a decrease of the overall operational availability (Ao) of already diminishing submarine force levels. In this thesis, data collected from Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard (PHNSY) is analyzed to investigate possible factors impacting the ability of maintenance activities to complete SSN 688-class submarine maintenance availabilities as scheduled. The analysis illustrates a systematic underestimation of availability duration due to the use of outdated historically based estimates following a significant shift in maintenance strategy in 2012. Additionally, the analysis shows a significant increasing trend in the average number of man-days required to complete a job. This thesis provides a narrowed focus for future studies attempting to determine the cause of this trend. Finally, this thesis proposes a solution to the systematic underestimation of availability durations by illustrating the inherent error in the current equation and providing a notional equation to remove that error.
Type
Thesis
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Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.