Modeling the effects of cyber operations on kinetic battles

Abstract

This thesis considers the effects of cyber operations on kinetic warfare, by exploring and building on two recently proposed extensions to traditional Lanchester models of combat. In one model, we consider instantaneous changes to kinetic fighting capability resulting, for example, from the disruption or restoration of communications or other supporting cyber systems. Such changes create discontinuous shocks in the overall combat dynamics and can dramatically affect the outcome of a battle. In the second model, we represent cyber operations as a continuous process of degradation and recovery in fighting capability based on the dynamics of epidemic spread. By using analytical and numerical approaches, we obtain insights about the effect of cyber operations on battle duration and attrition, how cyber operations can affect victory conditions, and tradeoffs in the allocation of limited resources to cyber operations and kinetic operations. Building on a common model framework, we develop several additional models that can be used to investigate specific aspects of cyber operations on kinetic combat.