A SYSTEMS THINKING APPROACH TO UNDERSTANDING CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY

Authors
Sim, Beverly W.
Subjects
systems thinking approach
systems thinking
causal loop diagrams
feedback
interdependency
Chinese foreign policy
Advisors
Porter, Wayne
Rothstein, Hy S.
Date of Issue
2018-06
Date
Jun-18
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The foreign policy system of any state is complex and dynamic. Dynamic complexity arises because of multiple feedbacks, non-linearity, multiple interconnections and strong interactions, time delay, and the ability of the agents within the system to adapt. Although there is a tendency to rely on reductionist approaches to establish causal relationships, reductionist approaches tend to provide one-dimensional perspectives and are ill-suited for complex problems with multiple interrelated components. This thesis shows how adopting a systems thinking approach to examining the Chinese foreign policy system may result in a better understanding of the overall system and its specific subsystems. By converting the variables into a causal loop diagram (CLD), the policy-maker can consider developments through a more holistic perspective and gain insights on feedback, hidden interdependencies, and multiple interrelated components. The CLDs developed provide illustrations of the complex, multi-dimensional interactive effects of key variables that affect the foreign policy decision-making process in China. With the identification of reinforcing and balancing loops, the policy-maker can gain a better understanding of how system effects can ultimately have an impact on policy outcomes, and perhaps make better-informed decisions.
Type
Thesis
Description
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/10945/59591
Series/Report No
Department
Defense Analysis (DA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
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Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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Copyright is reserved by the copyright owner.
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