Enhancing the enhanced scenario-based method of cost risk analysis
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Authors
Hooper, Seth T.
Subjects
Scenario Based Method
SBM
Enhanced Scenario Based Method
eSBM
Cost Growth Factor
CGF
Coefficient of Variation
CV
Cost Risk Analysis
Risk Adjusted Cost Estimate
SBM
Enhanced Scenario Based Method
eSBM
Cost Growth Factor
CGF
Coefficient of Variation
CV
Cost Risk Analysis
Risk Adjusted Cost Estimate
Advisors
Nussbaum, Daniel
Gates, William
Date of Issue
2011-12
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
The current S-Curve method of cost risk analysis for major DON acquisitions projects does not accurately estimate actual cost when the program reaches Full Rate Production. Another, sometimes more effective method of measuring cost risk, is by using the enhanced scenario-based method (eSBM) of risk analysis. The reason that cost estimations from the milestone B costs are inaccurate is that very little, if any, real information about the project is known. eSBM allows managers a less statistically tasking method of determining cost risk for a project while still maintaining the requirements of the Weapons System Acquisitions Reform Act. The key factors in measuring the usefulness of eSBM should be focused on the acquisition strategy being used for the project and the time frame from Milestone B to later Milestones. I presume that different acquisition strategies will yield different levels of success in estimating cost risk for eSBM.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funding
Format
xvi, 33 p.
28 cm.
28 cm.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.