A statistical analysis of monthly rainfall for Monterey Peninsula and the Carmel Valley in Central California
Authors
Davis, David Frederick
Subjects
Monthly rainfall models
California rainfall
Seasonal rainfall forecasting
ARMA models
Logistic analysis
Logistic time series
California rainfall
Seasonal rainfall forecasting
ARMA models
Logistic analysis
Logistic time series
Advisors
Jacobs, P.A.
Date of Issue
1981-03
Date
March 1981
Publisher
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis presents a statistical analysis of the monthly rainfall for the Monterey Peninsula and the Carmel Valley in Central California. The analysis begins with the simple first-order autoregressive Markov model, which is found to be weak. Next, 2X2 contingency tables are used to identify predictors, one of which is found to be January rainfall. Finally, logistic analysis is used to quantify the predictive ability of January. This paper attempts to analyze rainfall time series in the statistical sense. No attempt is made to provide a physical explanation of the findings from the point of view of a meteorologist.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Department of Operations Research
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.