Rethinking Naval Ship Force Design for Future Conflict

Abstract

This study aims to examine the tactical and operational implications of using existing, readily available, and easily adaptable technologies by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during naval operations in the Black Sea against Russia. By using a systems engineering approach, the study will explore the impact of different levels of sophistication in naval warfare technologies, including their procurement, adaptation, training, and integration into the military framework to help shape future fleet design. The study's findings highlight the swift and flexible deployment of innovative, albeit seemingly "low-tech" systems, their innovative application, and departure from conventional attack methodologies, thereby posing challenges to larger, more substantial naval forces in countering unwarranted aggression. Furthermore, the employment of asymmetric tactics such as deception, surprise, and audaciousness in warfare has contributed to the success of these understated weapon systems that have been proven by battle and not through the typical research and development cycle. The notable triumph of Ukrainian offensive missions against the Russian Black Sea Fleet and naval facilities in the Crimean Peninsula achieved through indigenous missile systems, enhanced drones, and other unmanned one-way kinetic attack systems across land, sea, and air domains serves to underscore the potential early obsolescence of traditional "program of record" defense systems. This is evidenced by the disproportionate losses and inefficacy witnessed within the Russian Black Sea fleet. Considering these developments and recent events within the Red Sea, there is an imperative for naval surface force design to readily incorporate the inclusion of cost-effective, expeditiously employed armaments alongside conventional high-end programs. This strategic approach seeks to ensure a robust, multi-layered defense posture capable of meeting evolving challenges.