On non-linear sensitivity of marine biological models to parameter variation
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Authors
Ivanov, Leonid M.
Margolina, Tetyana M.
Chu, Peter C.
Subjects
Non-linear sensitivity analysis, Sobol’–Saltelli sensitivity indices, Warping function, Irreversible predictability time, Biological model, Black sea phytoplankton annual
cycle
Advisors
Date of Issue
2007
Date
2007
Publisher
Language
Abstract
Marine biological models are usually complex with many free parameters. Parameter prioritization
(based on contribution to model output) is important for system management
but difficult. A variance-based sensitivity analysis is developed in this paper using the
Sobol’–Saltelli sensitivity indices, which measure the relative importance of each parameter
(or group of parameters) and range these parameters along their contribution to output variability.
To reduce the number of degrees of freedom, the model output is decomposed using
the warping functions or irreversible predictability time. A simple three-component [nutrients,
phytoplankton and zooplankton (NPZ)] model with 23 parameters for reproducing
annual phytoplankton cycle of the Black Sea is taken as the example to show the usefulness
and procedure of the sensitivity analysis. Single and total sensitivity indices showed strong
sensitivity of the biological model to the light limitation of the phytoplankton growth. This
agrees well with physical intuition. However, ranging model parameters along their contributions
to model output variability does not follow exactly the physical intuition when
model-related errors from large perturbations of the parameters are not small. For example,
the model output becomes very sensitive to the nutrient stock parameterization for certain
combinations of the light-related factors.
Type
Article
Description
Ecological Modelling
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.006.
The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.006.
Series/Report No
Department
Oceanography
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Chu, P.C., L.M. Ivanov, and T.M. Margolina, 2007: On nonlinear sensitivity of marine biological models to parameter variation (paper download). Ecological Modelling, 206 (3-4), 369-382, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2007.04.006.
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.