F/A-18 Performance/Pricing Model Analysis

Abstract

Project Summary: In 2004, the Naval Aviation Enterprise transitioned to a system of Performance/Pricing Models (P/PM) in an effort to support decision makers and gain efficiency in its funding activities. P/PMs consist of two key elements: driver-based performance management, which identifies the organization’s desired outcomes and the drivers that have quantifiable impacts on them, and predictive analytics, which identify high-leverage drivers and forecast performance. The F/A-18 Super Hornet has been the workhorse of the Navy and Marine Corps' tactical aviation squadrons for more than 30 years. However, over the last decade, the amount of hours flown in a mission capable (MC) status has steadily declined despite increases in funding and the utilization of the P/PMs to better allocate that funding. This work, in conjunction with efforts by the Chief of Naval Operations Assessment Division (N81) to assess the causes of this readiness decay, consists of a mixed methodology analysis of the following F/A-18 P/PMs: Flight Hour Program (FHP), Spares Model, and the Depot Readiness Assessment Model (DRAM) suite—including the Engine Depot Readiness Assessment Model (EDRAM) and the Airframe Depot Readiness Assessment Model (ADRAM). The seminal product of this research is a logical framework describing the relationships between the P/PMs with a particular focus on the model drivers determined as key to model performance. The framework serves as a foundation for future work in understanding the complexities of the Navy's aviation problem set. This research also illuminates the extent to which human decisions shape model outputs.