The future of the Swedish Defense Industry: strategies for competitiveness and support

Abstract

In the light of the new geopolitical developments and the end of the cold war, the Swedish government is downsizing the Armed Forces. The proposed organization and spending level will not be able to sustain a domestic defense industry of current size. In an attempt to overcome this, there are different industry initiated strategies available. This thesis evaluates three of them: International Cooperation, Concentration and Consolidation, Integration and/or Conversion, by using evaluation criteria derived from the future needs of the Swedish Armed Forces. The criteria are: Produce competitive systems, Maintain a broad defense industrial base for growth, Support build-up and mobilization, Provide technology unavailable from abroad, Support and modify systems in inventory and Limit foreign dependence. The evaluation shows no single strategy fulfills all needs. International cooperation is the strategy that best meets the needs. The Swedish Defense Industry must choose its own strategy to adapt to the new environment. It may include elements of all three strategies, but given forseeable spending levels, it is impossible to pursue all three simultaneously. It is therefore necessary for the government and the Armed Forces to clearly communicate future priorities and requirements in order to facilitate the process.