A Production Early Warning System (PEWS) model which predicts future USAREC mission accomplishment
Loading...
Authors
Roesler, Scott G.
Subjects
NA
Advisors
Whitaker, Lyn R.
Date of Issue
1994-09
Date
September 1994
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis develops a framework for a statistical Production Early Warning System (PEWS) model which predicts the United States Army Recruiting Command's contract production. Model predictions are based on the initial Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) taken by applicants over the past two years, the number of applicants expected to take the AFQT throughout the projection period, the historical probability that an applicant will sign a contract, and the distribution of time from when applicants take the AFQT until they sign a contract. Model parameters are based on the last five years of historical testing and contracting data. Yearly, seasonal, and monthly trends are incorporated by analyzing historical data using semi-monthly segments split on the 15th of the month. The model predicts contract production overall and for seven separate mission box categories. Performance of the model is measured by subtracting the number of actual contracts from the number of predicted contracts, and dividing by the number of actual contracts for FY 1993 time periods. The model's accuracy is greatly reduced because the testing data base does not include applicants who took the AFQT as part of a batch test group.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Organization
Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
141 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.