The future faces of the Cuban economy [electronic resource]: a Bayesian forecast
Loading...
Authors
Bernales, Barton J.
Subjects
Advisors
Looney, Robert E.
Date of Issue
1995-09
Date
September 1995
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis investigates the applicability and results of a Bayesian approach used to forecast the future direction of the Cuban economy. The Castro regime, bound to a stagnant political ideology, has limited the options by which to save socialism and the revolution. This study first examines the historical, political and economic contexts that define the decision environment and then proceeds to formalize hypotheses, target variables and relevant events indicative of Cuba's economic direction. The qualification of the Cuban economy as either a centrally planned economy, a mixed economy or a predominantly market economy leads to forecast scenarios that create a framework upon which to apply Bayesi techniques. The results of the Bayesian forecast and sensitivity analysis support three major conclusions: (1) Bayesian analysis is an adroit methodology by which to explicitly determine the probabilities of Cuba's economic direction; (2) Cuba's economic direction given recent efforts and initiatives favors either a mixed or market economy; and (3) in contrast to the resurrection of the institutions of the Cuban revolution, the advancement of Cuba's economic recovery will warrant a predominantly market economy. (AN)
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
NA
Format
116 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.