Optimization of lightning warning areas at Cape Canaveral/Kennedy Space Center
Loading...
Authors
Ceschini, Erin M.
Subjects
lightning
multi-objective decision analysis
Cape Canaveral
Kennedy Space Center
45 WS
resource protection
multi-objective decision analysis
Cape Canaveral
Kennedy Space Center
45 WS
resource protection
Advisors
Harr, Patrick
Date of Issue
2013-06
Date
Jun-13
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Lightning is the primary weather hazard to spaceflight operations. At CCAFS/KSC, there are 13 individual lightning warning circles centered on locations with considerable outdoor operational activity. Reducing the number of individual lightning warning circles by combining existing warning circles or creating new warning areas based on lightning patterns has the potential benefit of reducing the workload of the forecasters on duty. However, this must be balanced against the impact of over-warning to the customers. Principal component analysis was conducted on lightning warnings issued by the 45 WS and on 4DLSS data to evaluate co-variability of the current warning circles. Additionally, lightning warnings issued by 45 WS for CCAFS/KSC were evaluated to quantify the temporal overlap of the lightning warnings for adjacent circles. Perfect warnings were simulated using 4DLSS data to determine lightning warning overlap in a perfect scenario for comparison against actual operations. The results of the principal component analysis and temporal overlap calculations were used to identify possible alternative warning areas. Finally, multi-objective decision analysis was performed to make a recommendation for the consolidation of warning circles.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
Meteorology
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
Format
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.