Probability prediction of a nation's internal conflict based on instability
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Authors
Wann, Shian-Kuen
Subjects
Probability Prediction
K-Nearest-Neighbor Algorithm
Brier Scoring Rule
K-Nearest-Neighbor Algorithm
Brier Scoring Rule
Advisors
Lin, Kyle Y.
Date of Issue
2008-06
Date
Publisher
Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School
Language
Abstract
Since the end of cold war, predicting a nation state's instability has been a challenging national security issue for the United States. This thesis presents several methods to predict the conflict potential for failed nation states by comparing their social, economic, political, and military statistics with those in the past. This study uses the Brier scoring rule to evaluate the performances of these probability prediction methods. The study provides insights into situations where one method expects to outperform the others.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
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Organization
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NPS Report Number
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Funder
Format
47 p. : ill. ;
Citation
Distribution Statement
Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.