Conflict containment in the Balkans: testing extended deterrence
Loading...
Authors
Pjetraj, Walter M.
Subjects
Advisors
Yost, David S.
Date of Issue
1995-09
Date
March 1995
Publisher
Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
Abstract
This thesis critically analyzes a prominent theoretical framework concerning the conditions necessary for successful deterrence and conflict-containment, with special attention to historical antecedents to the current conflict in the Balkans. The analysis of four case studies is based on Paul K. Huth's hypotheses about extended deterrence. Three historical case studies examine the general and specific conditions in which the actions of the defender and the prote'ge' achieved deterrence success. The fourth case study is specifically oriented toward contemporary deterrence and conflict containment efforts in the Balkans. The three historical cases are compared with the current one. The findings suggest that the likelihood of deterrence success is increased when the immediate and short-term balance of forces favors the defender and the prote'ge'. Additionally, the analysis concludes that the defender may create an environment conducive to deterrence success through the use of coercive diplomacy. In the current Balkan crisis, military and diplomatic coercion have at times moderated Serbian behavior. However, the potential withdrawal of U.N. peacekeepers from Bosnia and the lack of a truly defensive rather than peacekeeping force in Macedonia may encourage the Serbian leadership to view U.S. warnings regarding the security of Macedonia and the ethnic Albanian population of Kosovo as a bluff. If so, the likelihood of deterrence success may grow problematic.
Type
Thesis
Description
Series/Report No
Department
National Security Affairs (NSA)
Organization
Identifiers
NPS Report Number
Sponsors
Funder
NA
Format
148 p.
Citation
Distribution Statement
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.