Campaign analysis of a NATO ground forces campaign in Kosovo

Abstract

On March 24, 1999, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) started an air campaign by attacking targets in Serbia, including Kosovo. This thesis analyzes the question: "What might have happened if Serbia had not retreated and NATO had to conduct a ground forces campaign to achieve its objectives?" The aggregated combat model uses the situational force scoring (SFS) methodology, introduced by RAND, to compute force ratio, attrition, and movement as the result of combat. For a portion of the campaign analysis, the General Campaign Analysis Model (GCAM)(trade name), developed by Systems Planning and Analysis, Inc., is used. It is shown that a NATO ground forces campaign in Kosovo will only be successful, if tactical and technological measures can reduce significantly the defender's use of anti-tank (AT) weapons; even then, the casualties on the attacker's side are relatively high. Furthermore, the developed model is a starting point for the development of a decision support tool for joint contingency planning in higher HQ