Series:
Manpower Systems Analysis Theses

Series Type
Degree-Earning Works
Description
ID

Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 152
  • Publication
    EFFECT OF QUALITY ON THE ATTRITION OF ENLISTED MARINES FROM THE ACTIVE RESERVE
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2023-03) Haynes, Michael A.; Bacolod, Marigee; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Department of Defense Management (DDM); Becker, Michael, United States Marine Corps
    Marines who serve in the Active Reserve are vital to the success of the large reserve force. Though small in number, the Active Reserve provides critical support to the various components of the reserve force. Marine Reserve Affairs is concerned about the quality of Marines who access into the Active Reserve. The concern is that non-high quality accessions will have adverse impacts on the future Staff Non-commissioned Officer population. This research seeks to examine the attrition trends among Corporals and Sergeants using various measures of quality and different demographic categories. I conduct the research using 10 years of panel data provided by Marine Reserve Affairs. I use survival analysis to study the relationship between rank, quality, and attrition. I find that high-quality Corporals attrite at lower levels than high-quality Sergeants after meeting initial service obligations. This research could be used in the future to study why Marines in the Active Reserve attrite and which component of the larger reserve force they attrite into.
  • Publication
    APPLYING PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS IN ASSESSING HEALTH CONDITIONS OF APPLICANTS
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2021-03) Knutson, Mark A.; Shen, Yu-Chu; Hartmann, Latika; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Graduate School of Defense Management (GSDM)
    Predicting military attrition due to conditions that existed prior to service is a complicated problem. My thesis explores underwriting practices and risk assessment in the life and health insurance industries with the aim to link private sector underwriting techniques to the military medical screening process. I review the current prediction models in the economic, actuary, and medical fields and find many of these models utilize complicated machine-learning algorithms to include random forests, deep convolutional neural networks, and deep dynamic memory neural network models. For my empirical analysis, I utilize a Cox proportional hazard model to determine risk via potential predictor variables. My findings suggest past self-inflicted injuries, substance use disorder (current and in the past), waivers for drug offenses, missing an Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) score, and deployments (current and in the past) are associated with higher hazard rates of separation. This information provides insights regarding the separation risks associated with various indicators.
  • Publication
    AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF MINORITY COMMAND LEADERSHIP ON THE RETENTION OF MINORITY SAILORS
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-03) Greene, Alexander G., Jr.; Arkes, Jeremy A.; Tick, Simona L.; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Business and Public Policy (GSBPP)
    This thesis evaluates the effects of minority command leadership on the first-term reenlistment decisions of underrepresented junior enlisted sailors in the U.S. Navy. In this thesis, I build a data set for Navy enlisted personnel and officers observed from fiscal years 1995 to 2018. Using a linear probability model and an ordinary least squares regression analysis approach, I analyze the first-term retention rates for minority enlisted sailors based on different levels of exposure to minority naval command leadership. This thesis found statistically significant evidence that suggests that same-minority command leadership influences the reenlistment of minority sailors. The results also demonstrate that increased diversity leads to greater reenlistment rates among non-minorities. These findings on the influence on junior enlisted sailors suggest that the Navy could present more opportunities for minorities to assume senior leadership positions in hopes of increasing minority recruiting, retention, and diversity. Moreover, this research provides support to policy adjustments not only in the Navy, but throughout the military toward placing more underrepresented but qualified personnel in leadership positions to exploit role model effects on retention of entry-level rated enlisted personnel. In addition, insights gained from this thesis may help Navy decision-makers further develop and foster a culture of inclusion across all ranks, designators, rates, and ratings.
  • Publication
    STRATEGIC WARFIGHTING READINESS: EVALUATING THE NAVY RESERVE CROSS-ASSIGNMENT PROGRAM
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2023-03) Neal, Joshua B.; Ahn, Sae Young; Schwerin, Michael, RTI International, NC; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Department of Defense Management (DDM)
    The Navy Reserves augment the active duty with sailors who live away from fleet concentration areas. Thus, they must travel to provide support. Reservists bring civilian expertise that is specific to mission areas of their supported units. To get the right sailors with the right skills to the right command at the right time, this study develops a tool seeking to optimize the cost efficiency of personnel-billet assignments within a defined budget, without sacrificing their readiness. Using a tailored mixed-method approach, this research focuses on the reserve travel component and a series of qualitative matching scales. This thesis develops a prototype to increase qualitative matches between reserve personnel and their billets while also reducing travel costs. The prototype is based on a specific community of officers, and this study finds that optimal personnel-billet matches’ value can be sustained for this community, but for 64 percent of the original cost. Future researchers can apply this prototype and alter the matching scales to the specific needs of each community. Ultimately, the prototype developed in this study seeks to maximize cost-effective use of the reserve labor supply, and ensures reservists bring the critical skills and experience to our strategic warfighting readiness, aligned with the vision of the Chief of Navy Reserve.
  • Publication
    A QUALITATIVE STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF SOCIAL STRESSORS FROM MARCH 2020 TO MARCH 2021 ON NAVAL FORCES AND COMMANDERS' REACTIONS TO STRESSORS
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2023-03) Norton, Wesley A.; Blassingame, Simonia L.; Aten, Kathryn J.; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Department of Defense Management (DDM); Tick, Simona L.
    In this thesis, I study responses by Navy unit-level leadership to external social stressors from March 2020 to March 2021 such as the #BlackLivesMatter movement and associated events, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the U.S. Capital riots, as they relate to fostering inclusion. Current training for Navy leaders does not include guidance or general practices on how to address such events at the unit level. These external events have a negative impact on sailors’ mental well-being and readiness. Therefore, the ad-hoc nature of responses by Navy leaders, with varying results on the cohesion and sense of inclusion, has room for improvement. Prior studies have indicated that an inclusive approach increases a leader's ability to manage negative feelings during periods of social upheaval. In this thesis, I use a design thinking framework to conduct a series of interviews with members of majority and minority communities in the Navy, followed by in-depth focus groups. Further, the focus group results are briefed to a test group of senior Navy and academic officials to collect and analyze their feedback. My findings help identify and recommend a set of best practices for leaders to address external social stressors in a manner that promotes inclusion.
  • Publication
    THE EFFECTS OF PARENTAL LEAVE POLICY CHANGES WITHIN THE UNIFORMED MILITARY SERVICES
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-03) Laurita, Laura; Molloy, Matthew; Bacolod, Marigee; Heissel, Jennifer A.; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Business and Public Policy (GSBPP); Business and Public Policy (GSBPP)
    The United States has no federal mandates for paid family leave (PFL), an unusual standing among the world’s developed countries. Recent Department of Defense (DoD) policy initiatives have expanded paid maternity and family leave to offer more support to new mothers and other caregivers. The DoD’s increase in maternity leave is a unique policy change for a large and diverse organization. Family leave policies are established as an incentive for attracting and retaining talent. Military leadership emphasized the need to retain the talent and value of female service members as motivation for recent paid maternity leave expansion. Few papers have examined how large-scale programs such as PFL affect parental behavior across demographics in the United States. With a better understanding of the effects from PFL policy changes, the military can employ policy aimed at retaining service members. Our paper examines recent changes to DoD parental leave policy for active duty service members. In 2015, the Department of the Navy tripled paid maternity leave from 6 to 18 weeks. In 2016, the DoD standardized paid maternity leave, reducing Navy and Marine Corps policy from 18 to 12 weeks of maternity leave and expanding Army and Air Force policy from 6 to 12 weeks of maternity leave. Our study uses difference-in-difference and regression discontinuity design methods to examine the impact of these policy changes on retention, birth and pregnancy outcomes, and parental leave taken.
  • Publication
    PERFORMANCE EVALUATION TRAIT VALIDATION
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2022-03) Luke, Bryan C.; Bacolod, Marigee; Helzer, Erik; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Naval Research Program (NRP); Department of Defense Management (DDM)
    The Navy is undergoing several personnel management system changes that impact the daily lives and promotions of all naval personnel. A large part of this change is updating the traits and associated values statements that are graded on individuals’ performance evaluations. The Navy has drafted 8 traits, 39 sub-traits, and 82 value statements (TVS) that need to be evaluated to determine their credibility within Navy doctrine. This thesis synthesizes current civilian and military literature on performance evaluations and promotions to better frame the new TVS. This thesis then compares the new TVS against Navy doctrine and other military services’ officer evaluations to evaluate TVS validity. The results show that the new trait and value statements have much in common with Navy doctrine and other military services’ officer evaluations. This thesis recommends that the Navy develops a single document that defines performance standards; later, surveys should be fielded that further compare these TVS with Navy promotions to determine TVS’s predictive validity.
  • Publication
    BLENDED RETIREMENT SYSTEM: AN ANALYSIS OF MARINE CORPS OFFICER OPT-IN RATES BY MILITARY OCCUPATIONAL SPECIALTY
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2020-03) Bicknell, Adam D.; Seagren, Chad W.; Bacolod, Marigee; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Graduate School of Defense Management (GSDM)
    In 2018, the National Defense Authorization Act created the Blended Retirement System (BRS), effectively removing the defined benefit plan and 20-year cliff-vesting requirement under the High-Three military retirement system. By removing the defined benefit plan and replacing it with a defined contribution plan, the BRS enables military members to separate prior to serving 20 years while having some form of retirement benefit that is easily transferable to other employers. As such, many constituents voiced concern that the BRS may cause long-term negative effects to both retention and accession missions. To determine whether military members chose to opt into the BRS due to their intent to separate from the service earlier, I use a military-to-civilian crosswalk for Marine Corps officer military occupational specialties (MOSs) to civilian standard occupational codes (SOCs). I then use Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data to match MOS-SOC wages to analyze whether higher or lower opt-in rates are observed in MOSs where civilian wages are higher or lower while also analyzing opt-in rates among critical-fill MOSs. By using a logistic regression model, I find that civilian wages and critical-fill MOSs have no statistically significant effects on BRS opt-in rates. Further study on the effects of BRS on retention is suggested, which may provide more insight to a member’s decision to opt in and the potential associated effects on future retention.
  • Publication
    AN ANALYSIS OF THE CAREER PROGRESSION OF FIRST-TERM NAVY ENLISTED WOMEN
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2023-03) Robinson, Maxine C.; Shen, Yu-Chu; Tick, Simona L.; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Department of Defense Management (DDM)
    In this thesis, I analyze both pre-accession and post-accession characteristics of enlisted personnel in the Navy and evaluate how these traits specifically affect the career progression of enlisted women. To measure career progression, I use attrition, reenlistment, and promotion as observable outcomes. Using longitudinal files of personnel data on Navy enlisted personnel from accession until 2013, or until they separated, I estimate multivariate regression models to examine any differences in outcome between women and men. I find that pre- and post-accession characteristics do not explain away the gender differences in first-term attrition and retention. However, pre- and post-accession characteristics help explain part of the gender differences in fast-track promotion. Overall, enlisted women are more likely to separate from the Navy before the conclusion of their first-term enlistment contract compared to enlisted men. However, among those who do not attrite, they are more likely to remain on active duty at least three months past their initial four-year obligation. Finally, among E4 personnel, enlisted women are less likely to promote to the rank of E5 in less than four years compared to enlisted men. These findings support further research on potential factors that might explain the gender gap in the Navy.
  • Publication
    PARENTHOOD AND ITS EFFECTS ON PERFORMANCE IN ACTIVE DUTY MEDICAL PERSONNEL
    (Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2021-03) Heyde, John J.; Mellendick, Kevan M.; Hartmann, Latika; Heissel, Jennifer A.; Department of Defense Management (DDM); Graduate School of Defense Management (GSDM); Graduate School of Defense Management (GSDM)
    Minimal research to date has examined the impact of new parenthood on either military personnel or medical professionals. This thesis aims to identify the specific impacts of new parenthood on performance of military medical professionals, a group of highly skilled, in-demand, and costly-to-train servicemembers. Using quarterly data from 2013-2019 obtained from the Army Person Data Environment, we used individual fixed effects models to identify how new parenthood impacts physical performance of Army and Navy medical enlisted and officers, using physical fitness test scores and body mass index. Models were controlled for age and analyzed by gender and officer/enlisted status. Results indicate that parenthood has significant negative effects on new parent physical fitness for military medical personnel. Detrimental effects to fitness persisted longest for female officers. Negative effects were greater in female personnel than male personnel, and greatest in female officers. These results indicate a need to adopt policies that promote a culture of fitness that coincides with parenthood, including, but not limited to, universal adoption of physical training during work hours, resources directed toward physical training in the pregnancy and postpartum periods, safe physical training while under other life stressors, such as sleep deprivation, and general lifestyle health behaviors. Modifying the timeline of postpartum return to physical fitness testing may also be warranted.