NPS Outstanding Theses and Dissertations

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NPS Outstanding Theses and Dissertations

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JUS IN BELLO IN THE ERA OF DRONE WARFARE: DISCRIMINATION, PROPORTIONALITY, AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GREAT POWER COMPETITION
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2025-03) Collazzo, Amanda L.; Strawser, Bradley J.; Volpe, Tristan; Defense Analysis (DA)
The rise of unmanned aerial systems has reshaped the ethical and operational environment of warfare. This thesis examines how the historical use of sophisticated and unsophisticated UAS, and adherence to jus in bello principles, informs their role in Great Power Competition, particularly against China. Through case studies of the Global War on Terror and the Ukraine–Russia conflict, it analyzes the application of discrimination and proportionality and how UAS influence future deterrence and engagement strategies. The GWOT study investigates how sophisticated systems enabled ISR and precision strikes in permissive environments against non-state actors. In contrast, the Ukraine–Russia study highlights the disruptive power of low-cost, commercial drones in contested battlespaces. These cases assess jus in bello adherence and inform recommendations for drone warfare in a future conflict with China, where advanced anti-access/area denial systems present major challenges. This study examines the challenges of UAS integration in contested environments with advanced anti-access/area denial systems. It recommends using sophisticated UAS for ISR and precision strikes while deploying unsophisticated drones for swarming and attrition. The research concludes with UAS development strategies focused on technological innovation, decentralized control, while adhering to jus in bello principles to ensure effectiveness, deterrence while minimizing escalation risks in Great Power conflict.
SIMULATING SUCCESS: EVALUATING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MODELS AND SIMULATIONS TO REPRESENT SPECIAL OPERATIONS
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Edgin, Robbie J.; Fry, Kyle C.; Burks, Robert E.; Malkasian, Carter; Defense Analysis (DA)
This thesis expands the understanding of Special Operations Forces’ (SOF) ability to model special operations by answering the question: What are the DoD’s existing models and tools within which SOF can articulate its value proposition to the Joint Force to justify force structure and resource allocation requirements? A common viewpoint is that models cannot represent special operations activities. On the contrary, our thesis finds that the DoD’s existing suite of models and tools can model SOF effects. But for that to happen, the special operations community must implement the right organizational processes. These organizational developments emphasize coordination with adjacent and higher organizations to direct and disseminate analytical guidance, the establishment of roles and responsibilities for an organizational modeling team, a codified modeling process, and the implementation of traceable, transparent, and credible data inputs.
INNOVATION ADOPTION FOR FUTURE CAPABILITIES
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Fast, Christian M.; McCormick, Gordon H.; Dew, Nicholas; Defense Analysis (DA)
Sweden is considered one of the most innovative countries in the world, but it still struggles with agility and rapidness in its defense innovation process. Considering the fast-paced application of new commercial technology in the war in Ukraine, the Swedish Defense Minister has, called for an immediate reformation of the Swedish defense innovation process so it can meet these new challenges better. One country that is widely considered to excel at fielding new technology quickly is Israel, which makes it an interesting case to consider for the reformation efforts of the Swedish defense innovation process. This research used a comparative case study to analyze what practices might be replicable from the Israel defense innovation process to improve the Swedish process. The empirical data was drawn from two sources: literature and interviews. The results of the study showed that among other things, Sweden should improve its communication with innovation stakeholders and harness the innovative power of its active forces, reserve forces, and veterans to enable bottom-up micro-innovation initiatives. These changes should be paired with a new systematic effort for fast-paced prototyping by merged innovative teams. These practices are assessed to contribute to increased accuracy, speed, and relevance while reducing the costs associated with innovation.
MULTILINGUAL EVENT EXTRACTION USING GENERATIVE LARGE LANGUAGE MODELS
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Stenlund, Per-Henrik; Warren, Timothy C.; Maness, Ryan; Defense Analysis (DA)
This thesis evaluates the multilingual event extraction capabilities of large language models (LLMs) across various model sizes and architectures to explore the feasibility of using generative models for multilingual event extraction. Using a dataset of synthetically generated protest event articles translated into 18 languages, it assesses 12 models from four different families (Phi-3, Qwen 2.5, Gemma 2, and Mistral) across three size tiers. The study employs a generative extraction approach using a single prompt across all models to extract four key components from news articles describing protest events: actors, targets, location, and date. It uses the same approach to classify events into one of five categories: riot, demonstration, obstruction, strike or boycott. Results demonstrate that larger models achieve consistent multilingual performance, with Gemma 2 and Qwen 2.5 showing particularly good results. Performance patterns show systematic differences in extraction difficulty across fields, with structured information (dates, locations) and classification (type) being handled more effectively than semantic elements (actors, targets). The research contributes to the understanding of LLMs’ multilingual capabilities in information extraction and classification and has significant implications for the analysis of large sets of multilingual news sources, such as open-source intelligence, operations in the information environment, or political event analysis.
MORAL FRAMING IN SOCIAL MEDIA AND ITS INFLUENCE ON NONVIOLENT PROTEST BEHAVIOR
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Choijamts, Ariunbat; Warren, Timothy C.; Houck, Shannon C.; Defense Analysis (DA); Borer, Douglas A.
Social media platforms are in influential positions and play a significant role in amplifying public grievances and mobilizing protests, yet the moral framing within online discourse, particularly relating to foreign influence, remains underexplored. This thesis investigated the role of moral language in social media as a catalyst for nonviolent protests, analyzing the content of social media messages in combination with data measuring the timing and location of nonviolent protest events for early 2016. Employing a quantitative approach to linguistic analysis, this study examined how specific moral narratives impact protest behavior across diverse environment, with a focused lens on mentions of China. Findings revealed that countries with heightened moral discourse experience more frequent nonviolent protests, particularly when the moral discourse encompasses concepts like fairness and betrayal in connection with China. These results underscore the influence of moral framing in sparking civic engagement. These implications are significant for policymakers and civil society, who must consider how social moral narratives shape protest behaviors, both domestically and in response to foreign influence.
MARITIME ESCALATION AND AMBIGUOUS THREATS: CHINA'S MARITIME MILITIA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-06) van den Bosch, Rudolf A.; Gans, Ben; Defense Analysis (DA); Jamison, Thomas
This study explores the relationship between the escalation process and coercive effects achieved by the Chinese Maritime Militia (CMM) in the People's Republic of China's (PRC) maritime irregular warfare campaign. Using qualitative research analysis, a comparative case study examined two cases in the South China Sea (SCS) in 2023: the Second Thomas Shoal blockade and the Iroquois Reef transformation. The case study data was mainly collected through semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions with subject matter experts during field research in Japan and the Philippines in September 2023. The findings indicate that the interaction between local escalation at sea and strategic escalation with the national tools of state power is a key element that influences the coercive effects of irregular threats in the maritime domain. The relationship between escalation and coercion is illustrated in a conceptual model that shows how intervention in the escalation process can reduce the effectiveness of maritime ambiguous threats. Extrapolating the findings, Western nations or allies could potentially reduce similar non-military maritime threats in other geographic regions, thereby improving the Western position in long-term competition with adversaries in the maritime domain.
SEND IN THE COWS: REGENERATIVE GRAZING CREATING RESILIENT INSTALLATIONS
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-06) Czaja, Eric W.; McAlpine, Ian P.; Fletcher, Kristen; Houck, Shannon C.; Defense Analysis (DA); Nussbaum, Daniel A.
Climate change directly affects soldiers, families, and operational readiness. The current Army Climate Strategy Implementation Plan FY23-27 (ACS-IP) published lines of effort to ensure a trained and ready force while preparing a sustainable future force to fight and win the nation’s wars. To combat greenhouse gases (GHG), the Army must explore management techniques to comply with emerging standards. This thesis research examines ACS-line of effort (LOE) 1: installations. The LOE aims to accomplish this by adopting programs and practices that optimize infrastructure resilience and sustainability while employing adaptive land management techniques to ensure future training and readiness. The regenerative grazing pilot we propose can help to achieve all the desired outcomes. Findings will demonstrate benefits of regenerative grazing on DOD installations, specifically showing that adaptive multi-paddock (AMP) grazing programs sequester greater amounts of carbon (C) than conventional grazing management. The results of the study will provide data of overall carbon sequestered and additional environmental benefits from AMP management. Continued research efforts will compile the data in subsequent reports and provide findings linked to increased installation resiliency. This is an opportunity to adopt a shovel-ready nature-based solution for change.
SOCIAL MEDIA ANALYSIS OF CHINESE INFLUENCE THROUGH THE BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-06) Khair, Rayhan Imamul; Warren, Timothy C.; Defense Analysis (DA); Houck, Shannon C.
The cognitive battlespace is at the forefront of strategic competition. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) influences internal and external audiences by media manipulation and censorship, dissemination of disinformation campaigns via social media platforms, tangible presence and actions, and the practice of public diplomacy. This thesis uses new computational tools and large-scale measurements of social media content to reveal the nuances of the PRC’s global propaganda in support of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By adopting an innovative spatial-temporal approach that samples messages from the geographic vicinity of known BRI project locations, I show that it is possible to train an artificial neural network algorithm to detect the impacts of Chinese influence in social media. The findings suggest that sentiment trends vary substantially across BRI project sites, with some areas experiencing strong positive or negative language shifts following BRI project initiation, while others remained relatively stable. In addition to demonstrating this new capability for assessment of effects in the information environment, the analysis further explores whether global perceptions are helping the PRC reach its larger strategic goals through BRI project investments. I find that the evidence for the PRC reaching its larger strategic goals is mixed, and strongly dependent on local contexts, rather than reflecting a clear global trend.
RESET: IMPLEMENTING A DYNAMIC MIXED-MOTIVES FRAMEWORK FOR STRATEGIC COMPETITION
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-03) Boss, Christopher M.; Blanken, Leo J.; Lepore, Jason, Cal Poly; Defense Analysis (DA); Panella, Cecilia
This capstone explores how the U.S. military can better understand and execute an effective role in strategic competition. Specifically, this report analyzes how specialized irregular warfare (IW) activities may play a role in this shift by framing such activities within a dynamic mixed-motives (DMM) (maintaining favorable equilibrium) framework. Structuring competitive activities within this framework is necessary to accommodate the current strategic landscape of an economically interdependent peer competitor with which there is a need for coexistence. Failure to develop strategies based on a DMM framework creates unnecessary risks of escalation and will forego many potential gains for the nation. Alternatively, DMM strategies could enable the U.S. to maintain an equilibrium while optimizing gains and preventing conflict. An opportunity exists for implementing DMM strategies through the development of an analytical framework and process that synchronizes military planners (the customer) and the resourcing organization (the provider) for conducting specialized IW activities. Beyond simply advocating for the DMM framework, this report offers the Requirements Selection and Enabling Tool (ReSET) as a mechanism to be used by the customers and provider to ease the planning of these activities. ReSET is a lean and intuitive application that provides all users with the knowledge necessary to plan within any logical framework in order to optimize IW efforts across the globe.
STARLINK PNT FOR SOF: HOW PROLIFERATED LOW EARTH ORBIT SATELLITE CONSTELLATIONS CAN INCREASE OPERATIONAL RESILIENCE IN GPS DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTS
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2023-12) Hansen, Lloyd F.; Lan, Wenschel D.; Space Systems Academic Group (SSAG); Defense Analysis (DA); Panella, Cecilia
This research seeks to determine the capabilities and limitations of Starlink position, navigation and timing (PNT) capabilities to inform how Special Operations Forces can utilize proliferated Low Earth Orbit satellite constellations to create a more robust and resilient PNT primary, alternate, contingency, and emergency (PACE) plan. The pertinence of this research is underscored by the escalating threats to GPS integrity, which pose significant risks to military navigation systems. Key findings suggest that while Starlink PNT is less capable than GPS, especially in mobile contexts, it is operationally relevant in static contexts where GPS is denied, and position data is critical. Additionally, Starlink PNT offers cost-effective resiliency due to Starlink terminals already being deployed across the military as alternative communications systems. This thesis recommends the addition of Starlink PNT data from existing Starlink communication terminals to bolster the PNT PACE plan, providing a low-cost enhancement to operational resilience in the face of GPS vulnerabilities.