NPS Outstanding Theses and Dissertations

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NPS Outstanding Theses and Dissertations

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IMAGES OF A FROZEN WORLD: A STUDY OF ELITE AND MASS MEDIA ARCTIC NARRATIVES IN CONTEMPORARY RUSSIA
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Cullinan, Kirsten N.; Clunan, Anne L.; National Security Affairs (NSA); Tsypkin, Mikhail
This thesis examines the way that Russian elite mental conceptions, or images, of the Arctic and that of the broader population of Russia have changed throughout the Putin era. This study examines elite narratives through official publications, statements, and speeches, then compares the image trends found in elite rhetoric to the images of the Arctic presented in mass media through film. In both areas, the image of the Arctic shifted from 2000-2022 to a more national, resource-focused, and masculine image of the Arctic, settling near an image of Russia as an Arctic Great Power. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the elite image of the Arctic has moved toward a new conception of the Arctic Great Power image, in which the Arctic’s symbolic purpose of demonstrating the country’s status is more essential than the region’s economic potential. These shifts in elite and mass media images indicate that future Russian Arctic policy will prioritize the country’s dominance in the region and be especially sensitive to perceived threats to its territory and status.
THE EMPLOYMENT OF UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES IN THE RUSSO–UKRAINIAN WAR: A DISRUPTIVE MILITARY INNOVATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR U.S. ARMY FORCE DEVELOPMENT
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Sauser, Mark K.; Russell, James A.; National Security Affairs (NSA); Wirtz, James J.
This thesis examines whether the employment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the Russo-Ukrainian War (2022-2024) constitutes a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). Through analysis of UAV operations throughout the conflict, this research evaluates the emergence of new weapons, new organizations, and new ways of war—the three criteria established in Cohen's RMA framework. The study finds that UAV employment in this conflict represents an RMA, evidenced by the proliferation of diverse UAV technologies, the establishment of Ukraine's dedicated Unmanned Systems Forces—the world's first separate military branch for unmanned systems—and the emergence of new operational concepts including drone swarms and AI-enabled targeting. Drawing on extensive documentation of UAV operations in Ukraine and military innovation theory, this research demonstrates how unmanned systems are transforming modern warfare. The findings have significant implications for military modernization, particularly for the U.S. Army. This thesis recommends establishing a dedicated Unmanned Systems Branch, developing new operational concepts for UAV-saturated battlefields, and shifting procurement strategies toward attritable systems to maintain military effectiveness in an era of ubiquitous unmanned warfare.
PRECISION MUNITIONS AND PARTNERSHIP GAINS: THE BENEFITS OF EQUIPPING JORDAN'S ARMED FORCES WITH GBU-39 SMALL DIAMETER BOMBS FOR JORDAN AND THE UNITED STATES
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Abuhani, Osama M.; Russell, James A.; National Security Affairs (NSA); Gingeras, Ryan
Syria and Iraq remain unstable, serving as sanctuaries for numerous terrorist and smuggling groups that pose a security threat to Jordan. These groups have also targeted U.S. forces in the tri-border area shared by Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. In response, Jordan is exploring a range of strategic options, among them the acquisition of precision weaponry to target these groups from a distance. This thesis examines the potential benefits of equipping Jordan with the GBU-39 Small Diameter Bomb (SDB), a capability not yet provided through the U.S. Security Cooperation Program (SCP). The SDB would enhance Jordan’s border security, support U.S. interests in the region, and counter Iranian influence in the Middle East. The case of the SDB serves as an invitation to think about the value of empowering trusted and committed partners like Jordan with powerful weapons that could deter adversaries through conventional means. A deterrence that would benefit both nations and help delay potential conflicts in the region as Jordan would be viewed stronger in the eyes of Iran and its proxies, thereby promoting long-term stability.
USING INNOVATIVE DRONE TECHNOLOGIES TO COMBAT TERRORISM IN THE LAKE CHAD BASIN
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Njock, John W.; Jasper, Scott E.; Dahl, Erik J.; National Security Affairs (NSA)
This thesis explores the transformative potential of innovative drone technologies in counterterrorism efforts across the Lake Chad Basin, highlighting their role in enhancing regional peace and stability. Combat drones, with their proven effectiveness, offer a groundbreaking shift from traditional ground combat to advanced aerial strategies, aligning with ethical warfare principles to improve public perception. Specifically, first-person view drones provide an affordable and adaptable solution for less technologically advanced nations within the Multinational Joint Task Force, blending seamlessly with conventional military assets for enhanced operational effectiveness. Case studies from the Ethiopian civil war and the United States’ drone campaign in Pakistan demonstrate the tactical efficiency of drones while also discussing the ethical and legal considerations involved. Furthermore, experiences from conflicts in Ukraine and Myanmar illustrate the pivotal role and limitations of these technologies in evolving battlefield tactics, particularly against stronger adversaries. This research underscores the need for strategic integration of drone technologies to foster a secure and stable Lake Chad Basin through sound policies upholding political cooperation and operational collaboration amongst riparian neighboring states.
AL-SHABAAB'S FINANCIAL FORTITUDE: THE LINK BETWEEN FUNDING STRATEGIES AND ORGANIZATIONAL RESILIENCY
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-12) Njoroge, Everlyne W.; Hafez, Mohammed M.; National Security Affairs (NSA); Dow, David A.
Al-Shabaab poses a serious threat to regional stability and security. Its financial resilience is notable, as the group has maintained its operational capabilities despite increased global counterterrorism efforts. The ongoing political instability in Somalia, combined with weak governance structures, has created an environment that allows the group to survive and adapt. Theoretical frameworks—such as Reach Theory, Terror-Crime Nexus Model, and the Market Model—provide important insights into al-Shabaab’s strategies. A critical factor in al-Shabaab’s effectiveness is its ability to diversify funding sources. The results of this research indicate that the organization’s territorial control is the major source of its funding. A comprehensive understanding of al-Shabaab’s financial mechanisms is vital for informing policy decisions aimed at disrupting its funding networks.
FUTURE EXTREME HEAT CONSIDERATIONS FOR EMERGENCY MANAGERS
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-09) Christensen, Troy E.; Matei, Cristiana; Dew, Nicholas; National Security Affairs (CHDS)
Extreme heat poses a significant and growing threat to emergency management and homeland security within the United States, yet many communities remain unprepared for their impacts due to inadequate planning. This thesis explores the potential future impact of extreme heat on America’s emergency management community. The study specifically focuses on future extreme heat effects in Phoenix, Chicago, Seattle, and Atlanta, representing a diverse cross-section of climates in the United States. The study employs a scenario-based approach for each city to determine the shocks of extreme heat events in future global temperature increases of +1.5ºC, +2.0ºC, and +2.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. Each scenario focuses on the expected effects on Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Community Lifelines, representing vital functions of a community to ensure safety, security, and well-being. The thesis underscores the importance of planning for extreme heat specifically and the cascading effects of extreme heat on communities and infrastructure. Recommendations to mitigate the growing challenge of extreme heat events on communities include creating plans specific to the hazard, preparing for cascading impacts, focusing on heat awareness and communications, and advocating funding for communities to address extreme heat threats.
GREAT POWER COMPETITION IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND CISLUNAR SPACE: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF US AND PRC STRATEGIES
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-09) Murtha, Conor P.; Moltz, James C.; National Security Affairs (NSA); Thomason, Gary
In an era defined by renewed great power competition, the strategic rivalry between the United States and the People's Republic of China has extended beyond Earth into the vast domain of cislunar space. The PRC's assertive maneuvers in the South China Sea offer a strategic framework through which to understand its goals and intentions in the cislunar environment, highlighting a broad pursuit of economic, political, and security objectives. This thesis explores the parallels between the PRC's aggressive behavior in the SCS and its growing aspirations in cislunar space. It seeks to derive lessons from the SCS to craft a robust US strategy for the cislunar frontier. By analyzing the PRC's use of conventional and gray zone tactics on Earth, alongside its aspirations for cislunar space, this research underscores the need for the US to adopt a multifaceted strategy in executing the missions of the Artemis Program and expanding its presence in the cislunar domain. This research advocates for fostering new international alliances, mobilizing a resilient network of allies and partners, integrating cutting-edge commercial innovations, and advancing essential space technologies crucial for the success of future cislunar missions. The strategic recommendations for the US aim not only to counter the PRC's ambitions in cislunar space, but also to secure this emerging domain for future generations, aligning activities with the shared interests of the US, as well as its allies and partners.
OPEN-SOURCE INTELLIGENCE AND ITS IMPORTANCE TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE U.S. NAVY
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-09) Garcia Castro, Juan Pablo L.; Dahl, Erik J.; National Security Affairs (NSA); Matei, Cristiana
This thesis seeks to examine and improve open-source intelligence (OSINT) integration for U.S. intelligence communities and the U.S. Navy (USN) by determining whether or not establishing a dedicated OSINT agency within the intelligence communities would be beneficial. Developing rigorous OSINT tradecraft practices and promoting research into crowdsourced intelligence may assist the USN in the event of a high-end fight.This research uses qualitative research via case studies into OSINT’s role in the history of American intelligence, the January 6, 2021, U.S. Capitol Attack, and the Russo–Ukrainian War. Additional comparative research was conducted into Australian and British intelligence partners’ incorporation of OSINT. The thesis culminates with a real-world OSINT collections exercise into North Korea’s missile manufacturing capabilities, utilizing open-source tools to create meaningful intelligence.The thesis concludes that no dedicated OSINT agency is necessary, but OSINT should be formally integrated into existing state agencies and Department of Defense (DoD) intelligence operations. Integration should be regulated by a central coordinating body to establish a standardized level of tradecraft, oversee private industry partnerships, and provide top-level guidance on civil liberties concerns. Finally, the research offers insight into innovative OSINT uses for DoD functions, such as crowdsourcing of real-time data through mobile applications.
THE NATO-RUSSIA COUNCIL: WHY THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF NATO–RUSSIA RELATIONS FAILED
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-06) Wartenberg, Dennis; Matovski, Aleksandar; National Security Affairs (NSA); Halladay, Carolyn C.
This thesis explores the complex dynamics of NATO and Russia’s relationship, including their inability to establish stable institutional relations through the NATO–Russia Council (NRC). The study considers various internal and external factors that have influenced this relationship during Vladimir Putin’s rule. These factors include the evolution of Russian foreign policy, regime survival calculations, and the growing influence of radical ideologies like Eurasianism in the Kremlin’s strategic outlook. By process-tracing key events and relating them to different theoretical predictions, the thesis finds that the conflict between Russia’s nationalist narratives and NATO’s liberal values has resulted in growing distrust and confrontation, which ultimately precluded meaningful cooperation between the two entities. This process has manifested in the increasingly ineffective role of the NRC in fostering stable relations and culminated in the Ukraine crisis. The thesis concludes that the breakdown in relations is a result of a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, differing security perspectives, and a fundamental values gap. These factors will persist and have significant implications for European and global security as Russia will continue to shape NATO’s posture. Given Russia’s history and behavior, it is likely that it will remain a difficult actor to deal with, which will keep NATO–Russia relations strained for the foreseeable future.
BRAZILIAN AND SOUTH AFRICAN TRANSATLANTIC LITTORAL SECURITY COOPERATION
(Monterey, CA; Naval Postgraduate School, 2024-06) Engel, David J.; Darnton, Christopher N.; National Security Affairs (NSA); Piombo, Jessica R.
Brazil and South Africa are two regional powerhouses on opposite sides of the Atlantic Ocean pursuing maritime security cooperation with implications for global and regional security dynamics. This study explores the motivations, capabilities, and historical context of each nation's strategies, while analyzing how their actions influence regional stability. Brazil's strategy is characterized by proactive engagement in the Atlantic coastal regions of Africa, utilizing its robust Navy and Marine Corps to project power and foster security partnerships. This thesis assesses the effectiveness of Brazil's security endeavors in enhancing its status as a significant security actor on the global stage. In contrast, in the 2010s South Africa pursued aggressive counterpiracy operations with its neighbors but burned out its underfunded navy in the process. Through case studies on the involvement of Brazilian Navy-Marine Corps detachments in Africa and the contrasting maritime policies of South Africa, this research identifies the strategic calculations underpinning each country's maritime security initiatives. It argues that Brazil's approach uses its hard power assets to build influence and is unique in that its security cooperation in African littoral zones has continued to grow in spite of domestic political and economic turmoil from 2000 to 2024. This steady and sustainable security cooperation provides an ideal venue for US cooperation.