Grade point average as a predictor of success in explosive ordnance disposal training

Abstract

The purpose of this MBA Project was to determine if a student's Grade Point Average (GPA) while attending Naval School Explosive Ordnance Disposal (NAVSCOLEOD) is an accurate predictor of graduation. This project was conducted with the sponsorship and assistance of the Center for EOD and Diving, as well as NAVSCOLEOD. This project served to verify the graduation prediction model currently in use at NAVSCOLEOD is valid. The regression equation used in the graduation prediction model was updated with student data from 2004-2008. NAVSCOLEODINST 5420.1U claims the model predicts successful completion of training for 95% of graduates who experienced a setback, and that the model is far more accurate overall than the traditional Academic Review Board (ARB) process. Based on student data from 2004-2008, the model predicted 94.1% would graduate and 5.9% would fail. This is not within the specified requirements of NAVSCOLEODINST 5420.1U. We also conclude that the methodology used in the current graduation prediction model is not a true portrayal of student graduation or failure. This model proceeds from outcome to prediction, instead of the other way around. We discuss another approach that more logically proceeds from prediction to outcome and gives a clearer understanding of model accuracy.