A verification of the COAMPS-TC model predictions of Typhoon Nuri (2008)

Abstract

The objective of this thesis is to examine the predictions of the COAMPS-TC model for Typhoon Nuri during the THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC) and the Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (TCS-08) experiment that occurred in August through October 2008 in the western North Pacific. This case study on Typhoon Nuri examines the dynamic and thermodynamic structure changes of this tropical cyclone, including the intensity, track, radar reflectivity, and azimuthally-averaged plots of tangential winds, radial winds, vertical velocity, and cloud water. The life cycle of Typhoon Nuri was broken down into the formation, intensification, and decay stages and one model run from each stage was evaluated. The minimum sea-level pressure and maximum winds were found for each of the three grids of the COAMPS-TC model and the high-resolution (T799) ECMWF model and compared to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center best-track values. The forecast tracks from both models were examined and compared to the best-track values. Overall, the models did the best during the intensification stage. Lastly, the aircraft data were compared to the initial conditions for the model, and it is concluded that this aspect is the major source of forecast error.