Analysis of promotion rates to lieutenant colonel and selection for command for USMC Aviation Supply and Maintenance Officers

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis was to identify those statistically significant variables associated with promotion to lieutenant colonel and selection for command of a Marine Aviation Logistics Squadron (MALS) or Center for Naval Aviation Technical Training Marine Unit for Aviation Maintenance Officers (AMOs) and Aviation Supply Officers (AVNSUPOs). A data set was constructed for the 102 in-zone AMOs and AVNSUPOs competing for promotion, consisting of demographic and Fitness Report (FITREP) data for each officer covering Fiscal Years 2004-2012. Utilizing logistic regression, the findings concluded that serving as a MALS Executive Officer (XO), receiving a Meritorious Service Medal, and scoring above the Reviewing Officers' (RO) average scores improve one's probability for selection. Serving in combat was not a significant factor for promotion. Because information on command selection was not available from Marine Corps Officer Assignments Plans and Programs, it was not possible to model for command selection. Instead, the following descriptive statistics provide insight on the type of officer selected to command. Forty percent have served as Operations Officers. Forty-three percent served as XOs. Fifty-one percent of the officers scored above their ROs' average markings. Only 37% have at least one combat FITREP as a major.