Operating and support costs and affordability of a 324 ship Naval battle force

Download
Author
Antonucci, Kevin C.
Date
2011-12Advisor
Nussbaum, Daniel
Mutty, John
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
The purpose of this research was to determine both the added operating and support (OandS) costs and affordability of operating and maintaining a future naval battle force of 324 ships as proposed in the Navy's 30-year shipbuilding plan. Cost estimation including regression, 3-year moving averages, point, expert and analogous modeling was used to capture both historical and future OandS costs from FY1991 to FY2024. With an emphasis on the three main cost drivers, (manpower, fuel and maintenance) which arguably had the largest influence on ships' OandS costs, data were obtained from the Visibility and Management of Operating and Support Cost (VAMOSC) database and various Selected Acquisition Reports (SARs). Analysis and modeling followed suite in order to forecast expected future costs and affordability for a proposed 12.5 percent growth in naval fleet size by FY2024. Reviewing all 29 classes of ship within the expected FY2024 battle force, normalized results from the cost estimation models yielded a minimum cost growth of 17 percent in OandS costs. Even if budget growth trend rates were to remain steady, negating the possibility of budget decreases, this thesis argues the Navy would still not be able to afford its proposed future battle force in FY2024.
Rights
This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
A Framework for a Defense Systems Effectiveness Modeling and Analysis Capability: Systems Effectiveness Modeling for Acquisition
Green, John M.; Stracener, Jerrell (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2019-04-30); SYM-AM-19-067The purpose of this paper is to present a response to two current Department of Defense (DoD) initiatives. The first is the DoD National Defense Strategy of 2018, which encourages the adoption of new practices to improve ... -
A parametric cost model for estimating operating and support costs of US Navy (non-nuclear) surface ships
Brandt, James M. (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 1999-06-01);With few effective decision-making tools to assess the affordability of major weapon systems, management of total ownership costs is continually misunderstood. Cost analysis provides a quick and reliable assessment of ... -
Total Ownership Cost -- Tools and Discipline
Boudreau, Mike; Naegle, Brad (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2011-03-16); NPS-CE-11-014Control of total ownership cost (TOC) is a continuing initiative to manage costs over the entire life cycle of a weapon system. There are several major categories of costs that contribute to Total Ownership Cost but the ...