Investigation of the 25 January 2000 East Coast cyclogenesis

Abstract

On 25 January 2000, a rapidly developing cyclone tracked up the East Coast of the United States. Along with this system, 12 to 18 inches of snow fell on major cities from North Carolina to Washington DC. This snowstorm deserves special consideration because of the poor numerical and human forecasts it received. The goal of this work is to analyze the performance of the Navy models, NOGAPS and COAMPS (West Atlantic) with the 25 January cyclogenesis event. Deficiencies with the model analyses and forecasts are identified and a diagnosis of critical model fields that led to these deficiencies is completed. Preliminary investigation of analyses and NOGAPS forecast runs with the new variational data assimilation system, NAVDAS, concludes the research. The results of the research reveal that NOGAPS poorly forecast storm tracks while COAMPS showed more success. Both NOGAPS and COAMPS produced deficient short range upper-level height forecasts and had difficulty analyzing two prominent jet streaks. NOGAPS was not able to adequately analyze or forecast cold air damming and coastal frontogenesis, while COAMPS was more successful at resolving these features. COAMPS produced better precipitation forecasts than NOGAPS, but still showed deficiencies. Preliminary investigation of NOGAPS using NAVDAS shows promise.