Ukrainian naval reform: required for survival

Abstract

This thesis examines the transition of the Ukrainian Navy from the Soviet Union Black Sea Fleet (BSF) to a national navy and its need for reform to survive. The settlement of the BSF revolved around three central issues: the division of BSF assets

basing rights

and sovereignty in the Crimea. Ukraine's navy must evolve from an obsolete Cold War force to a regional navy capable of protecting its national interests. Stability in the Black Sea region is critical to Ukraine and centers on four issues: a resurgent Russian Federation

Turkish dominance

Caspian Sea oil

and political and military instability. The thesis analyzes the Ukrainian Navy via a 'Top-down' method of force planning utilizing a T-matrix model. This produced three areas of required reform: establishment of military functions

allocation of resources

development of a regional navy. The problems facing reform in Ukraine are military development, domestic political will, and economic issues. These problems make reform difficult. For Ukraine to survive, it must implement reform through a combination of governmental action and continued reliance on outside assistance through North Atlantic Treaty Organization/Partnership for Peace and the United States.