Factors affecting first-term reenlistment decisions in the United States Army

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze factors that influence first-term reenlistment decisions in the United States Army. The main focus of the thesis is the analysis of information collected from soldier's official records that bear on the reenlistment decision. Data from the US Army Small Tracking File (STF) and records from the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC) cohort files were employed. The Army currently categorizes enlistees into ten characteristic groups (C-groups) based on gender, education, Armed Forces Qualification Test (AFQT) scores, and initial enlistment term. This thesis examined data across all C-groups and for enlistees from three cohorts: 1990, 1991 and 1992. The data was evaluated using descriptive statistics, cross- tabulation analysis, and logistics regression. The estimated model compares the results across C-groups using C-group 1 as the base group. Results indicate that certain factors affect the various C-groups differently. Not all factors were significant for all C- groups, but race, age, and youth organization participation were key influences across most C-groups. The family status and enlistment term variables were significant, however, they affected men and women differently. This theses should be helpful to Army personnel responsible for establishing reenlistment policy.