Ideas and Norms in Future War and Warfare; Strategic Insights, v. 10, Special issue (October 2011), 36-48. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part I: Alternative Perspectives: Traditional Powers, Rising Powers, and the Developing World
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In this paper, I will develop a slightly different approach that instead assumes that the future is path-dependent. This approach allows for a greater impact of agency and can be easily summed up as what happens in 2030 depends upon what we do in 2029, and what happens in 2029 depends upon what we do in 2028, and so on. Agency thus becomes crucial for shaping the future. Moreover, rather than focusing on actions, in this paper, I will primarily focus on norms. Norms change only gradually and slowly and are therefore a more promising baseline than current actions. Specifically, I will focus on norms of political order: about what it means to govern and be governed, how we understand the relationship between the public and private, and the concepts of civil and military. This paper is structured as follows. First, I will briefly discuss current patterns in war and warfare to evaluate whether or not there are trends that can be discerned. This part of the paper is based on the second approach and it serves a springboard to begin to think differently about the future. Throughout the paper, I will use the trends as a point of departure. Second, I will begin with a discussion on what we already know about the future. In doing so, I will critically engage with the NIC documents Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World and TomorrowÃ¢â‚¬â„¢s Security Challenges: The Defence Implications of Emerging Global Trends. In short, my critique will stress the lack of attention given to ideational factors. Third, and finally, I will suggest ideationally driven scenarios and identify the challenges to such a development of war and warfare.
This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.10, Special issue (October 2011), 36-48. Topic: Global Trends and Future Warfare ; Part I: Alternative Perspectives: Traditional Powers, Rising Powers, and the Developing WorldApproved for public display, distribution unlimited
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