Change We Can Fight Over: The Relationship between Arable Land Supply and Substate Conflict; Strategic Insights, v. 9, issue 1 (Spring-Summer 2010) ; pp. 65-89

Abstract

After decades of debate, most natural scientists have now acknowledged that the earth’s temperature is rising. These scientists also predict that the environmental consequences of global climate change over the next 20-100 years will be significant.This gradual realization of the existence and environmental impact of global warming has spurred a parallel discussion among national security academics and policymakers about the security consequences of climate change. Roughly speaking, there are two camps in this discussion—one that ominously predicts the potential for global warming to spark violent resource-related conflicts all over the world,and one that views the link between climate change and conflict as ambiguous and unproven.