An analysis of connected replenishment operational data: the distribution of CONREP service time

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Authors
Besecker, John Albert
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Milch, Paul R.
Date of Issue
1968-12
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Most analytic and computer simulation models of the Navy's CONREP phase of underway replenishment operations have assumed exponentially distributed service times for two reasons: (1) lack of better estimate of the true distribution, and (2) such an assumption leads to more tractable mathematical solutions. By analyzing several different combinations of replenishment vessels and combatant ships, it is demonstrated through goodness-offit tests that gamma distributions whose parameters can be estimated from actual operational data are more precise estimates of the actual underlying CONREP service time distributions. Furthermore, it is shown that the distribution can be made Erlang by minor adjustments to the parameter estimates of the gamma distribution. Such a procedure might be desirable for analytical models employing Laplace transforms. The data is subjected to linear regression techniques in an effort to develop meaningful and accurate functional relationships between service time and customer needs. The results indicate that the standard error of the estimating relationships would be too large to be of any practical use in planning an underway replenishment operation.
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Monterey, California. U.S. Naval Postgraduate School
Language
en_US
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.
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This publication is a work of the U.S. Government as defined in Title 17, United States Code, Section 101. Copyright protection is not available for this work in the United States.
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