Comparison of the Kalman filter and exponential smoothing techniques of forecasting United States Marine Corps losses in the Republic of Vietnam
Allison, William Thomas
MetadataShow full item record
This paper investigates the application of the Kalman Filter and the General Exponential Smoothing techniques of forecasting. Both methods are derived and the similarities and differences between them are discussed. The two techniques are then applied to the practical problem of predicting weekly losses suffered by the U. S. Marine Corps units in the I Corps Tactical Zone in the Republic of Vietnam. The mean absolute error of the prediction is used as the criterion for choosing the better of the two methods. Results are given for both techniques as well as for the method of linear regression. In general the Kalman Filter provides the smallest mean absolute error for the three mathematical models; linear, growing sine with harmonics and frequency of sixteen, thirty-two, and fifty-two weeks, and a constant model.
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
A solution to Moldova's Transdniestrian conflict: regional complex interdependence Mija, Valeriu (Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2003-06);Today, political scientists working with international organizations seek to resolve internal conflicts in Bosnia- Herzegovina, Cyprus, and Kashmir. To solve such crises, political scientists have mostly tried to apply ...
Applications of Life Cycle Cost concept in weapon systems acquisition for the Korea military Lee, Kyu Suk; Youn, Tai Young (1986-06);This thesis deals with the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) concept and life cycle costing techniques. It also presents the LCC application methodology in new weapon systems acquisition for the Republic of Korea(R.O.K.) ...
A comparison of detection and tracking methods as applied to OPIR optics Krueger, Michael R. (Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2014-12);The objective of this research is to investigate and evaluate detection and tracking algorithms suitable for Overhead Persistent InfraRed (OPIR) coverage of moving ground targets. One of the largest hurdles is operating ...